Base metals rally to peter out as supplies improve by admin- Friday, March 5th, 2021 07:57:45 AM
The rally in base metals prices we saw last month has generated unrealistic optimism about the longer term trajectory of the market. The market currently appears overextended within the wake of not only supply constraints and demand robustness, but also due to huge financial investor interest generated by vaccine availability. A closer look would tell us that the rally might not last long. As we move closer to the last half of the year, supply constraints are expected to ease, while demand growth may remain somewhat muted. Economic activity in China, the mover and shaker of the planet metals market, is predicted to decelerate. Early signs of producing activities within the Asian major slowing back are already visible. Will the Chinese New Year brighten metals market? China factor Copper has been a notable beneficiary of the recent rally within the base metals complex. Prices have breached $9,000 a tonne and are back at levels seen ten years ago in 2011. Supply tightness caused by disruption to mine operations in Latin America helped the market move up within the last two months; but supplies are now starting to devour. On March 3, copper was quoted at $9,266. The metal is probably going to trade at a mean price of $8,500 within the second quarter and 10 per cent lower in H2 this year. Global economic recovery, scrap shortage boost copper above $9,000/tonne The relationship between chrome steel and nickel is well-recognised. Nickel prices edged higher in February because of rising chrome steel production in China. there’s now a fall in China’s construction PMI which suggests that the property sector will face headwinds. this is often bound to weigh down nickel demand. On March 3, nickel was trading at $17,800/tonne. In Q2, the speed may decline to a mean level of $17,000 and in H2 this year some 10 per cent lower. Aluminium market is in surplus as output continues to grow relentlessly. Stocks held at exchanges also are at high levels. Off-exchange stocks, too, are estimated to be large. of these suggest an inevitable correction in aluminium prices. In Q2, the metal is probably going to lose $100 to trade at a mean rate of $2,100/tonne. We know, lead market is closely linked to the car sector. Lead didn’t join the February price rally because the automobile demand and output was weaker in China, while the euro area faced weak demand in January. Supply is predicted to extend due to enhanced recycling of old batteries. this is often bound to cause a downside risk to steer metal prices. Tin price surged following the coup in Myanmar and provide uncertainties. But the worth is unrelated to the market fundamentals, especially the electronics sector. The market deficit is predicted to narrow and start to weigh down tin prices in H2 this year.