Is Government’s rabi crop harvest puffed up?

Is Government’s rabi crop harvest puffed up?

by admin- Tuesday, March 22nd, 2022 07:54:06 AM

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There is now growing unease approximately the 2021-22 rabi crop production numbers launched by way of the Ministry of Agriculture ultimate month. Belief is gaining floor that the reliable harvest numbers are overstated, in a few cases by way of a extensive margin.

Major rabi plants, currently beneath the scanner of marketplace members, include wheat, maize, pulses (specifically chana or chickpea) and oilseeds (specifically rapeseed-mustard).

Planted on 34.3 million hectares (ultimate yr on 34.6 mh), wheat production is expected via the government at a new high of 111.3 million tonnes (109 mt). This variety is visible overestimated by using as a minimum 10 in step with cent. There is not anything to suggest that wheat yields have stepped forward to properly above three tonnes in keeping with hectare this season.

If anything, large customers are drawing their annual stability sheet primarily based on wheat harvest length of a hundred mt and no longer greater. Harvest has started on a modest scale in a few elements of the country which includes Gujarat. Over the next 2-three weeks, it’ll regularly spread northwards to cowl Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

The case of rabi maize is curious. The government’s personal estimate of planted place for the season is 1.Nine mh and production is pegged at nine.Eight mt, disclosing yield of close to five tonnes a hectare. It is regarded that rabi yields are commonly high, but no longer simply at an outlandish 5 tonnes.

Inflated pulses production
Pulses manufacturing numbers are visible a ways eliminated from truth. From a planted region of 16.Eight mh, manufacturing is estimated at 18.Three mt. Specifically, chana or chickpea production number at thirteen.1 mt from eleven.5 mh appears unrealistic. Many assert, chana harvest can be no more than 10 mt given the planted location, climate and agronomy.

In different phrases, government estimate of chana crop is overstated by means of a whopping 30 in step with cent. It is maximum probably the harvest numbers may be reviewed and taken to extra realistic degrees within the subsequent estimate due through May.

In case of pulses, the authorities has revised the kharif pulse crop down to eight.6 mt from the first estimate of nine.5 mt posted in September 2021. In its Commentary on September 23, 2021, Business Line had highlighted the overestimation – ‘Government’s Kharif pulses production estimate is overstated’. The second estimate has now rectified the variety.

In case of rabi oilseeds, from a complete place of 10.3 mh, harvest size is an expected thirteen.3 mt. In precise, rapeseed/mustard crop is placed at a file 11.Five mt (10.2 mt) from a planted area of 9.2 mh (7.Three mh).

It is in all likelihood that high open marketplace prices would possibly have endorsed a massive million hectares expansion in planted vicinity. However, the according to hectare yield works out to 1.25 tonnes which seems less-realistic under extant Indian situations. Industry professionals concede in personal that the crop range could have been overstated via up to 15 in step with cent.

There’s a risk is overstating the crop size. The policymakers may be stuck unawares while fact bites. Yet, it have to be stated that even after definitely discounting the government’s harvest information, the home availability may be secure in case of wheat, chickpea and mustard.

The writer is a coverage commentator and agribusiness expert. Views are personal.

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