India’s 2019-20 sugar production is ready to fall with the aid of 19% over previous 12 months, industry frame Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in its first estimate of sugar production for 2019-20.

India is predicted to provide 268.Five lakh tonne sugar in 2019-20 as in opposition to 331.61 lakh tonne produced within the preceding yr.

A launch from ISMA said: “The general sugar production all through 2019-20 SS might be around 268.Five lakh tonne without thinking about the impact of sugar discount because of diversion of B heavy molasses/ sugarcane juice to Ethanol.”

In July 2019, ISMA had released its preliminary estimates of sugar manufacturing at 282 lakh tonne for 2019-20 SS, based totally on the primary survey of satellite tv for pc mapping done in June 2019, assuming ordinary South West Monsoon in 2019. Diversion of B-heavy molasses and sugarcane juice turned into then now not considered for their impact on sugar manufacturing, the document brought.

On the idea of the second set of satellite snap shots of sugarcane crop acreage across the usa procured in the latter a part of October 2019, ISMA has now predicted the whole cane acreage at forty eight.31 lakh hectares, which is set 12% less than 2018-19 SS on pan India basis of 55.02 lac ha.

ISMA now reviewed its first increase estimates of sugar manufacturing for 2019-20 sugar season considering the estimates of sugarcane acreage, yields, recuperation, cane drawal, rainfall and different relevant factors.

“As in step with satellite photographs of October 2019 and the truth that we did not have ordinary rainfall, sugar production in the course of the modern-day 2019-20 SS is predicted to be decrease than what was predicted approximately four months back. The crop within the most important sugarcane growing states — Maharashtra and Karnataka — which contribute round 35-40% of u . S . A .’s sugar, were adversely impacted due to various reasons,” said the industry body’s press release.

The sugarcane acreage in Uttar Pradesh, the leading sugarcane and sugar producing state within the u . S . A . Is visible to be slightly lower, in comparison with 2018-19 SS. Taking into consideration the crop circumstance, climate situations and location below the high yielding cane sorts in the kingdom, an development in yield consistent with hectare is predicted. Hence, sugar production in UP in 2019-20 SS is anticipated to be round 120 lakh tonne, which is more or less on the same level of 118.21 lakh tonne produced in 2018-19 SS.

As according to preliminary estimates in July 2019, cane vicinity of Maharashtra changed into seen lower by way of about 30% for 2019-20 SS, due to drought final 12 months in Marathwada and Solapur.

Floods affected critical cane developing areas Kolhapur, Sangli, Satara and Pune in August – September 2019. Due to water logging in cane fields for lengthy period, a number of the cane has been destroyed absolutely, while some regions were in part affected in phrases of yield and recovery. Hence, cane vicinity for 2019-20 harvesting has similarly dropped to 7.76 lac hectare (ha), towards what turned into pronounced about 4 months again. It is accordingly approximately 33% much less than final year’s acreage of 11.54 lac ha.

Some sugarcane fields in uplands will gain in phrases of yield in step with hectare in addition to recuperation, because of better water availability in the course of the very crucial grand boom duration. Taking into account all the above elements, sugar manufacturing is, therefore, envisioned to drop nearly forty% to round sixty two lakh tonne in 2019-20 SS, as towards 107.20 lakh tonne produced in 2018-19 SS.

Similar to Maharashtra, there was bad rainfall in 2018 last 12 months within the cane growing areas of Karnataka, reducing the acreage therein for 2019-20 SS. Further, incessant rains in first fortnight of August, 2019 also affected the place contiguous to Maharashtra i.E. North Karnataka especially in Belgaum and Bijapur Districts.

Thus, region under sugarcane in 2019-20 SS is anticipated to be about 3.99 lac. Ha as in opposition to 5.02 lac ha. In 2018-19 SS, that’s lower via approximately 21%. Considering the various factors as stated above, sugar production in 2019-20 SS is estimated to be around 32 lakh tonnes as in opposition to 44.30 lakh tonnes produced in 2018-19 SS.

There has now not been any fundamental modifications within the different sugarcane growing States of the u . S . A .. The rainfall therein has been extra or less as anticipated. Hence, those States are anticipated to collectively produce approximately 54.Five lakh tonne of sugar in 2019-20 SS, nearly at the same degree as inside the previous season.

“The tender for ethanol procurement for 2019-20 SS is expected to be opened by way of the OMCs very quickly. As consistent with casual reviews, this 12 months the bid for the Ethanol constructed from B heavy/sugarcane juice would be higher. As according to marketplace information, it is expected that round eight.Five lakh tonnes of much less sugar could be produced because of the diversion of cane juice and B-molasses into ethanol. Therefore, the consequent sugar production estimates for 2019-20, after considering this diversion into ethanol, will be round 260 lakh tonnes of sugar. The precise diversion may be higher determined as soon as the bids are opened with the aid of the OMCs and, therefore, if required, ISMA can revise the figures,” the release stated.

Sugar manufacturing for the duration of 2018-19 sugar season become 331.61 lakh tonne. As in keeping with reports submitted by the sugar turbines to the authorities, sugar income for the duration of 2018-19 sugar season became 246 lakh tonne. It has been seen that there are a few sugar generators which promote more than the monthly sale quota given by way of the government to them, for diverse reasons consisting of the strain to pay cane charge to the farmers and additionally because massive working capital is blocked within the high sugar stock. There are reports from the marketplace that some other eight-9 lakh tonnes of sugar might have were given sold over and above what has been said by using them to the Government. Therefore, the sugar sales with the aid of the sugar generators for the duration of 2018-19 season is envisioned to be 255 lakh tonnes.

Considering the hole stability of 107 lakh tonne as on 1st October 2018 and sugar and exports of around 38 lakh tonne and sugar sales of 255 lakh tonne, the final balance as on 30th September 2019 is predicted to be 145.Eighty one lakh tonne.

Against the brand new export coverage of MAEQ of 60 lakh tonne, numerous sugar companies have already finalized contracts for exports and in the month of October 2019 by myself, it is learnt that approximately 7 to 8 lakh tonne of sugar exports were contracted a long way.